Contrarian Investor 13: How to Earn Superior Returns in the by Benj Gallander

By Benj Gallander

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The conclusion: Invest early and often. 40 THE C O N T R A R I A N I N V E S T O R ' S 13 LONG-TERM VERSUS SHORT-TERM INVESTMENT AGE HORTENSE 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 Total Invested Total Value $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 20,000 $145,841 HORATIO $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $ 2,000 $40,000 $98,846 RISK-REWARD RELATIONSHIPS ARE OFTEN BOGUS 41 COMPOUND INTEREST Benjamin Franklin said that a man has three great friends: an old wife, an old dog, and compound interest.

Do you make any preparations if the odds are 50 percent? 75 percent? 85 percent? At which probability do you choose to cancel the picnic for another day? 32 THE C O N T R A R I A N I N V E S T O R ' S 13 Here's another hypothetical example. Let's say you have booked a package deal for a week's honeymoon in San Francisco. You were scheduled to travel in October 2001. After the September 11 attack, would you cancel the trip? A classic case of the law of probability can be found in the work of Gregor Mendel, a name familiar to most high school biology students.

Maybe so, but if we are to achieve excellent returns, it is not the view through the rearview mirror that is important, but the outlook through the windshield. This does not contradict the importance of understanding history for formulating that forward vision. Ah, but while singing self-praise at the profits made and the capital preserved, I must point out that there was a flaw in my thinking. My assumption, and one that I heartily broached on Pamela Wallins national television show, was that a North American recession was in the offing.

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