All About Market Timing: The Easy Way to Get Started by Leslie Masonson

By Leslie Masonson

Occasions of the earlier decade have confirmed past doubt that buy-and-hold options don’t paintings in endure markets. industry timing, notwithstanding, is very powerful in declining markets—and it presents optimistic returns in bull markets, as well.
All approximately marketplace Timing, moment version, deals easy-to-use market-timing suggestions you could weave into your funding procedure. And it’s now not as advanced as you might imagine. very quickly, you’ll grasp the abilities you must maximize gains whereas minimizing risk—no topic what path the industry takes. with out the incomprehensible jargon and intricate theories of different books, All approximately marketplace Timing covers:
* The 5 so much ecocnomic ideas for timing the market
* the easiest market-timing assets on hand this day, from newsletters to sites to advisors
* 4 symptoms for selecting the market’s health
* options for timing even the main bearish of markets

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The next worst was the January 1973 through December 1974 period (and February 1906 through The Stock Market ϭ Bull Markets ϩ Bear Markets TA B L E 15 1-4 Over a Century of Bull Markets Dow Jones Industrials START END LENGTH* START END %CHANGE SEPT NOV NOV SEPT DEC DEC AUG JUN MAY JUL 1900 1903 1907 1911 1914 1917 1921 1924 1926 1932 JUNE FEB DEC OCT NOV NOV MAR FEB SEP FEB 1901 1906 1909 1912 1916 1919 1923 1926 1929 1934 10 27 26 14 24 24 20 21 41 20 54 44 54 73 54 68 65 90 150 40 78 100 100 94 110 115 105 170 390 110 44% 127% 85% 22% 104% 69% 62% 89% 160% 175% SEPT MAR APR 1934 1938 1942 MAR SEPT JUNE 1937 1939 1946 31 19 50 85 100 95 190 160 210 124% 60% 121% JUN SEPT OCT OCT JUN OCT MAY DEC 1949 1953 1957 1960 1962 1966 1970 1974 JAN APR JAN NOV FEB DEC JAN SEP 1953 1956 1960 1961 1966 1968 1973 1976 43 32 27 14 45 27 32 22 180 270 410 580 540 750 550 570 295 510 690 720 1000 975 1050 1025 64% 89% 68% 24% 85% 30% 91% 80% MAR AUG JULY OCT NOV SEP OCT 1980 1982 1984 1987 1990 1998 2002 APR JAN AUG AUG JUL JAN ?

Click Here for Terms of Use. 24 MARKET-TIMING BASICS Translating these three numbers into actual dollar amounts: A $1000 investment in stocks over the 76-year period would have been worth $2,279,000, while a bond investment would have been worth $51,000, and T-bills would have been worth $17,000. Remember now, these results apply only if you held for 76 years! S. 8 percent for T-bills. Thus, the argument for buy-and-hold is that a long-term investor makes out well, while those in the market for short periods of time have a higher probability of loss.

Market timing may underperform buy-and-hold in bull markets but should outperform it in bear markets. Investors who dismiss market timing as a viable investing strategy are therefore doing themselves a major disservice. This last bear market is just one example of many over the last 100 years, where buying and holding stocks or stock mutual funds was not a wise, rational, or money-protecting strategy. Actually, it was financial suicide. Don’t forget that there is something called the “opportunity cost” of money.

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